Our member, Ret. Lt. Col. Tom Morgan, a graduate of West Point, introduced our speaker, Ret. Lt. General (3 Stars) Keith Dayton to the more than 40 members and guests present who were honored to hear General Dayton give us his sobering analysis and opinions regarding the war in the Ukraine and its potential international consequences. It is difficult to imagine a more knowledgeable person. While serving in the Army, he personally spent years in Russia and the Ukraine and met regularly with key leaders of the countries in that area. His career resume is most impressive and is set forth in detail on Wikipedia at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keith_Dayton. He was explicit in saying that he was expressing his opinions and not necessarily the official positions of the U.S.

His presentation was filled with so many thought-provoking observations that this scribe found it impossible to take notes which captured all of his comments. What follows are “bullet points” taken from my notes. I apologize for any errors.

1: Russia is the clear aggressor and is fighting a war of attrition which is not justified.
2: Putin’s goal is to recapture sovereignty over the parts of those lands which formerly belonged to the USSR and/or whose culture is based more on Russian than Ukrainian culture, such as Russian language being the dominant language. Putin does not seek to go beyond those areas. The General opined that the U.S.’s claim that the domino theory of Russia capturing countries beyond those areas does not apply. Putin does not intend to attack NATO countries.
3: Ukraine is a deeply divided country. The population of the Eastern side of the Ukraine tends to identify as of Russian heritage and speaks Russian more so than Ukrainian. The Western side of Ukraine is of lesser interest to Putin because the population speaks Ukrainian and is more hostile to Russia.
4. A primary goal of Putin is to gain total control over the Eastern border of Ukraine all the way to Crimea so it will have a land bridge giving it unimpeded access to and from Crimea to utilize its seaports for its military and world trade.
5: Russia considers this as a proxy war in which the United States is the real opponent.
6: Ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries of the world. It is the world capital for money laundering. There is great concern that much of the money the U.S. is giving to it is going to corrupt people for their own purposes and not to fund its military. It is an economic disaster. Its infrastructure is being destroyed. It is now totally dependent on the U.S. Other countries which have been supporting it are losing interest. The General predicted that the German people do not like the war and within 6 months there will be a problem with it continuing to support Ukraine.
7: The sanctions which have been imposed on Russia are not working.
8: China is currently the Big Winner in this war because it is not depleting its resources, so it will later be stronger for aggression toward Taiwan and other countries. Its support for Russia is increasing.
9: There will not be a “Big Victory” for either side such as in WWll. The Ukrainian troops are becoming exhausted, at the same time, Russia is assembling massive numbers of soldiers for a major offensive. Ukraine is consuming weaponry faster that its suppliers will keep up with the demand.
10: The war is causing the U.S. to deplete its war stock to the point where it will severely impair its ability to defend itself against aggression from countries such as China.
11: The war has no natural stopping point and a clear military victory is not possible. Both Russia and Ukraine have “dug in their heels” and are not currently amenable to negotiating a peaceful resolution. Russia will not voluntarily quit the war.
12: Ukraine is also determined to keep fighting. It has lost 20% of its territory and is almost totally dependent on the West. It has had some success in its North but has lost in its South and East. Its demands for settlement are not realistic, for example, it demands that Russia pay it reparations for the damage it has inflicted on it.
13: The U.S. media is not being truthful in its reporting of the war and it is overlooking the war’s impact on our country and its military strength. It gives its audience only “happy talk”. The General recommends the “Daily Mail” in London as a source for more objective reporting.
14: It is time for negotiation to end this war, but no meaningful negotiations are now occurring. A potential resolution would be to divide Ukraine such as the division of Korea.

Our Past President, retired Lt. Colonel Dick Muri, opines that “If General Dayton had been appointed Ambassador to Ukraine, this war probably would not have happened. He is respected by both Russia and Ukraine”.

COMING EVENTS

MEETING OF FEBRUARY 28, 2023: DONALD KIMBALL, Communications Manager Washington Policy Center on The Capital Gains Tax and what is expected in this year’s legislature. In the past, colleagues of his have spoken to us and have been thought provoking. This talk promises to be stimulating.

MEETING OF MARCH 7, 2023: BILL BAARSMA, FORMER MAYOR OF TACOMA AND LOCAL HISTORIAN on the history of the GYRO CLUB and the CASCADE CLUB. Bill is a regular speaker and is always informative and entertaining. His talk will be especially helpful for our new and prospective members.

SCRIBE’S COMMENTS: It was great to have such a large group to hear General Dayton. We have an excellent roster of speakers for the upcoming meetings before the last meeting of this season which ends on May 23 for our summer break.

We were not able to ZOOM the General’s talk because no one has come forward to operate the equipment in the absence of our overworked president, David Cotant who was on a well- deserved vacation. If a volunteer comes forward, the meeting of February 28 will be on Zoom. A notice will be sent to the membership in advance of the meeting so you can plan accordingly.

Respectfully submitted, Phil Sloan, scribe, who has reevaluated his opinions on the ongoing war after the outstanding talk by General Dayton.

MINUTES OF MEETING OF FEBRUARY 14, 2023